Lead prices fluctuate, suppliers offer firm quotes, and secondary lead supply has no advantage [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,029/mt, consolidating in a range during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it surged to $2,042/mt. However, due to an increase in bearish positions, LME lead jumped initially and then pulled back, reaching a low of $2,018/mt in the tail end of the session. It eventually closed at $2,023/mt, down by 0.27%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2509 contract opened at 16,890 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,940 yuan/mt in the early session. Affected by factors such as the accumulation of social inventory of lead ingots and weak downstream consumption, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 16,850 yuan/mt. It eventually closed at 16,865 yuan/mt, down by 0.15%.

Macro Aspects:

The EU is preparing to impose a 30% tariff on US goods worth 100 billion euros in the absence of an agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The EU's retaliatory measures are a negotiating tactic. Trump: Will impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries. Will always be willing to forgo tariff provisions if major countries can be persuaded to open their markets to the US. The General Administration of Customs of China issued the "Interim Measures of the Customs of the People's Republic of China on the Tax Collection and Administration of Duty-Free Goods Processed with Added Value in the Hainan Free Trade Port". He Lifeng will travel to Sweden from July 27 to 30 for economic and trade talks with the US side.

:

SHFE lead continued to exhibit a weak and volatile trend, with suppliers generally offering at discounts. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some enterprises preferring cargoes self-picked up from electrolytic lead smelters, but transaction volumes varied by region. In South China, smelter inventories declined significantly, with quoted premiums gradually increasing, with some offering at premiums of 50-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. However, transactions in North China were relatively weak. Secondary refined lead was offered at firm prices, with premiums ranging from 0 to 100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price.

Inventory Aspects: On July 24, LME lead inventory increased by 6,175 mt to 269,325 mt. As of July 24, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,400 mt, an increase of approximately 100 mt from July 21.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

The impact of maintenance at some primary lead enterprises has not yet been fully lifted, and the losses of secondary lead have not improved temporarily. Secondary lead smelters are not highly motivated to produce, and their quotations remain firm, with premiums ranging from 0 to 100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the quotations of primary lead (electrolytic lead) in major production areas range from a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, the price advantage of secondary lead has declined, causing downstream enterprises' rigid demand to flow towards primary lead. Additionally, the raw material supply situation has not improved temporarily. Considering the lead ingot supply situation, lead prices still have support in the short term.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.